The X-Files DataBase Blog

August 8, 2009

So what are the chances for a third film?

Filed under: General — xfilesdb @ 1:09 am

i’ve been asked a few times what i think the chances are for a third X-Files film.  Let’s look at the first two first.

The X-Files : Fight The Future was released in North America on June 19, 1998, and well in advance everybody associated with the film promised that you didn’t have to be an X-Files fan to understand the film.  That was not exactly The Truth.  While Carter used dialogue to try to get the non-diehard fans up to speed there was still a ton of information for neo-philers to process.  Those of us who had the benefit of five seasons of character development were only introduced to SAC Michaud, AD Jana Cassidy, Kurtzweil, Bronschweig and a couple cavemen.  i can see how those that had never seen an episode would have information overload from trying to piece together the Black Oil, why an old smoking man seems to be running the whole show, who the three geeks are that just so happened to show up at the hospital after Mulder got shot, etc.  This isn’t just my opinion; today’s birthday boy David Duchovny himself said in an interview that acting like just anybody would understand this movie was quite a stretch.

But Fight The Future was released during The X-Files’ reign as the biggest thing since Star Wars.  The fifth season of The X-Files was the season with the most viewership and includes several fan favorites including “Bad Blood” and “Post-Modern Prometheus.”  The two-hour movie was epic, spanning four continents (North America, Europe, Africa and Antarctica.)  It brought in $189 million on a budget of $66 million, with $30 million in box office on opening weekend.  Regardless of who fully understood the whole movie it was the 22nd ranked movie of 1998, and the 13th ranked movie of the summer season.

The very first rumors of The X-Files : I Want To Believe were that it was going to be a “Monster of the Week” type episode and would not depend on the Alien Mythology.  The trailer shown at last year’s Comic-Con fully supported that, yet many (fair weather?) X-Files fans felt that they were force-fed the weak sauce after watching the movie and there were no mytharc elements.  The movie was visually stunning, with Chris Carter using the terrain of Pemberton, BC to his advantage with huge snowy landscapes featuring a backdrop of backlit snow-covered trees.  The storyline was truly one that didn’t require extensive X-Files knowledge, and was as shocking as “Saw” or “Se7en.”  Again Carter used dialogue to bring non-fans up to speed, but there was much less to digest.

i wanted to believe that more than the hardcore fans would show up for this movie, mostly because Carter had said the possibility of a third film depended largely on the success of I Want To Believe.  If we were to simply go by this… well… it was the 78th ranked movie of 2008.  It only did $21 million domestically, but luckily it did over twice that amount overseas.  It has done over $15 million in DVD/BD sales thus far.

So what are the chances?  If we went solely by Chris Carter’s statement about IWTB doing well i’d say pretty poor.  i’ve been made aware of a push to buy IWTB DVDs and BDs to get the film ranked higher on the sales list in order to get Chris Carter’s attention.  Very noble, but probably a colossal waste of money.  i bought it myself, but just don’t see the point of buying multiple copies in order to leapfrog a couple other discs.  The place to spend the money was the theatre.

But i want to believe that the decision was made long ago, that the summer of 2012 will be the Summer of X, and these are the reasons why:

If you haven’t seen all the seasons plus IWTB you may want to stop here.

Possible SPOILER below:

1) “I Want To Believe” was a bridge.  When “The Truth” ended Fox Mulder was a fugitive.  Sure, Chris Carter could have gone straight to an alien mytharc movie, but it would’ve been too cliche for the FBI to come crawling to Mulder because the alien invasion had occurred just  as he had said it would.  Therefore, the paranormal storyline where a priest had a connection to an alter boy that he had molested years earlier.

2) 10 years would have passed between “The Truth” and a 22Dec12 invasion storyline.  The fans are out there, but how many would lose interest if that much time elapsed?  This point somewhat points back to the bridge concept, but for a different reason.

3) William.  In the last three seasons The X-Files had a fire sale, i.e. they killed off about everybody.  On the one hand there seems to be an unwritten code in Hollywood where children typically do not meet a violent demise.  On the other i feel that Carter has huge plans for William, and that is why he was put up for adoption.  Does anyone really think that his powers disappeared when he was adopted?  In 2012 William will be 11 years old and could potentially kick major ass.

So i expect a Mulder-Scully-Skinner-Doggett-Reyes-William vs. the New Syndicate in Summer of 2012.  The fans are out there, and Chris Carter has always known it.

-i

By the way, i was stung by a bee while typing this.  Coincidence?

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3 Comments »

  1. It didn’t help that I Want to Believe was a low budget movie with a limited marketing campaign released around the same time as The Dark Knight. It’s the kind of movie that should have been released at a different time, say around Halloween.

    The kind of movie the alien invasion story should be typically takes 2-2 and a half years to make. There’s still plenty of time for that to happen, infact too much time as we speculate on if it will come to be or not. So that might explain why we haven’t heard anything yet.

    It’s an ideal concept for a summer blockbuster, like the first movie so we’ll have to wait. I’d like to see it, I’ve often thought we never would, it would be nice to be wrong.

    Comment by Darth_Angelus — August 8, 2009 @ 1:36 am

  2. IWTB pulled in over $83 million worldwide, thats with domestic DVD..doesnt include overseas DVD…Not bad on a $30 million budget..add in the “Revelations” DVD….A FOX exec said the 3rd film is up to Carter and the main actors….I see no reason why they wouldnt want to continue…Even if Anderson quits XF, there is still the option of the other characters, Reyes and Doggett. I hope we go for the 3rd..news of it cant be far away if it’s a go. With luck, Frank Spotnitz is hard at work on the script.

    Comment by LastExit — August 8, 2009 @ 3:16 am

  3. Are you kidding me! You were seriously stung by bee while writing that? Freaky! I would love another movie. I was just thinking about that yesterday when I was watching ‘The Truth’ last night. I was wondering what became of William and doubt his “abilities” are really gone.

    Comment by Lisa V — August 16, 2009 @ 10:26 pm


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